SELAMATKAN MALAYSIA SIRI-14: LANGKAH PENTING BAGI MEMBAIKI SEMULA PENARAFAN KREDIT MALAYSIA

SELAMATKAN MALAYSIA SIRI-14: LANGKAH PENTING BAGI MEMBAIKI SEMULA PENARAFAN KREDIT MALAYSIA

1. Apakah tindakan yang perlu diambil untuk menambah baik penarafan kredit Fitch dari 'BBB+' kembali menjadi sekurang-kurangnya ke 'A-' dan seterusnya mengelak penurunan penarafan ke 'BB' dan menjadi ‘Junk’. Penarafan ini amat penting terutamanya kerana hutang negara telah menjangkau hampir RM1.3 trilion!!!

2. Ya…bukan sahaja hutang Malaysia yang terkesan akibat pandemik Covid-19 tetapi mengikut data dari Institute of International Finance (IIF) berhubung perbandingan nisbah hutang ke KDNK (Debts to GDP), Malaysia mempunyai nisbah hutang yang ke-8 terbesar di dunia semasa tempoh pandemik Covid-19. Ini satu situasi yang membimbangkan memandangkan Malaysia masih merekodkan jumlah pesakit baru positif Covid-19 setiap hari yang tinggi.

3. Dari laporan yang sama, hutang isi rumah (Household Debts) di Malaysia meningkat dan menjadikan Malaysia sebagai salah satu negara dengan pertambahan hutang isi rumah ke-3 terbesar di dunia (Rujukan seperti carta dibawah).

SELAMATKAN MALAYSIA SIRI 13: TIGA FAKTOR UTAMA PERUBAHAN NEGATIF PENARAFAN KREDIT MALAYSIA OLEH FITCH

 

TIGA FAKTOR UTAMA PERUBAHAN NEGATIF PENARAFAN KREDIT MALAYSIA OLEH FITCH

1. Apakah yang menyebabkan Penarafan kredit Malaysia diturunkan? 

2. Mengikut laporan Fitch Inc, terdapat beberapa faktor yang melemahkan kredit metrik utama Malaysia. 

3. Faktor Pertama: Tahap dan jangkamasa krisis pandemik Covid-19. Seperti yang kita sedia maklum, pandemik Covid-19 telah berjaya dikawal dengan baik hanya untuk beberapa bulan sehingga gelombang ketiga pandemik Covid-19 menjadi lebih agresif dan masih belum terkawal dengan baik. Setakat ini, pandemik Covid-19 mengambil masa yang terlampau lama untuk dibendung, menjadi tidak terkawal dan kerajaan tidak memperuntukkan belanjawan yang cukup untuk mengatasi penularan wabak Covid-19.

4. Malah, Belanjawan 2021 juga telah dirangka pada peringkat kelima Strategi 6R, iaitu peringkat Revitalise iaitu fasa selepas pemulihan atau 'Recovery' seolah-olah gelombang ketiga langsung tidak wujud. 

5. Seperti saranan YB Langkawi, Tun Dr Mahathir semasa perbahasan Belanjawan 2021, belanjawan sepatutnya memperuntukkan lebih bajet untuk membendung gejala pandemik Covid-19 dengan membuat ujian seluas yang mungkin dan mengasingkan semua yang positif Covid-19 dari awam. Dengan itu semua sempadan, kegiatan sosial dan aktiviti ekonomi boleh dibuka sepenuhnya supaya kita mampu memulihkan negara dari krisis kesihatan dan krisis ekonomi. 

6. Melalui teknologi terbaru ujian Covid-19 melalui alat 'breathalyzer'-Breath Analysis atau Analisa Nafas, keputusan ujian Covid-19 dapat diputuskan dengan segera dan semua pelancong yang ingin memasuki sempadan negara atau sesiapa dapat diasingkan jika keputusan positif dengan segera tanpa menggangu aktiviti ekonomi terutamanya sektor pelancongan.

7. Dengan ujian yang menyeluruh, negara kita pasti dapat melandaikan lengkung atau 'flatten the curve' dan mengatasi gejala wabak Covid-19 dan pemulihan sebenar ekonomi dapat dijalankan.

8. Faktor Kedua: Governance atau Tata Urus Kerajaan. Laporan Fitch Rating Inc juga menyebut dalam perenggan 6 berhubung ketidaktentuan prospek menambahbaik tata-urus kerajaan serta ketidakstabilan kerajaan dengan majoriti 2 kerusi parlimen sebagai salah satu faktor utama penurunan penarafan. Pertikaian terhadap ketidaktentuan polisi-polisi, tata-urus dan ketelusan pentadbiran yang diamalkan semasa pentadbiran Pakatan Harapan terus menjadi tanda tanya dalam komitmen pentadbiran kerajaan Perikatan Nasional.

Ketidakstabilan kerajaan bertambah tenat dengan perebutan kuasa terbaru di negeri Perak yang memberi isyarat negatif risiko Kerajaan Persekutuan yang kemungkinan akan hilang kuasa.  

9. Malaysia telah mendapat Skor Tata-Urus atau 'Governance Score' dari Bank Dunia melebihi median 76 persentil untuk penarafan 'A' pada tahun 2019 dibawah Pakatan Harapan. Tetapi Skor Tata-Urus Kerajaan Perikatan Nasional pada tahun 2020 jatuh kepada 64 persentil.

10. Contoh tata-urus yang dikemukan dalam laporan Fitch ialah seperti perbicaraan rasuah dan salah guna kuasa oleh Mantan Perdana Menteri dan bekas menteri-menteri dari Barisan Nasinal dahulu. Contoh lain yang juga memberi kesan kepada penarafan Malaysia termasuk pelantikan jawatan kanan syarikat berkaitan kerajaan atau 'Government Link Companies' yang dahulunya dibawah pentadbiran Pakatan Harapan dilantik dari golongan professional; dan kini diganti dengan ahli-ahli politik yang kurang pengalaman dalam dunia korporat.

11. Kemerosotan dalam urus tadbir dan ketidakstabilan politik yang berterusan akan menjejaskan keyakinan pelabur dan menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi terbantut. Ini juga akan mengakibatkan krisis ekonomi kita akan terus berpanjangan.

12. Faktor Ketiga: Beban Hutang. Mengikut Laporan Fitch, metrik hutang dibawah Kerajaan Perikatan Nasional merosot teruk dan Fitch menganggarkan hutang am kerajaan akan meningkat kepada 76.0% daripada KDNK tahun 2020 daripada 65.2% daripada KDNK tahun 2019 dibawah Pakatan Harapan.

13. Angka hutang yang digunakan oleh Fitch termasuk komitmen jaminan kerajaan keatas pinjaman yang dilaporkan secara rasmi, yang dibayar melalui belanjawan kerajaan. Pembayaran hutang bersih 1MDB bersamaan 12.6% perbelanjaan pada bulan September 2020 dan 1.3% daripada KDNK.

14. Oleh sebab itu beban hutang jauh lebih tinggi daripada nilai purata 59.2% dan 52.7% untuk kategori penarafan 'A' dan 'BBB'. 

15. Kerajaan Perikatan Nasional juga tidak memperkenalkan langkah atau pendekatan untuk mengurangkan beban hutang melalui perlaksaan strategi fiskal yang efektif.

 16. Ini bermakna, beban hutang 1MDB dan SRC telah menjadi salah satu faktor yang menyebabkan penurunan penarafan kredit Malaysia yang mengakibatkan faedah pinjaman secara keseluruhan menjadi lebih mahal.

17. Dalam erti kata lain, rakyat terpaksa membayar lebih cukai pada masa hadapan untuk membayar hutang yang semakin meningkat diatas kelemahan pentadbiran kewangan dan ekonomi Malaysia dibawah Perikatan Nasional.

ARMIN BANIAZ PAHAMIN ~ Usahawan teknologi, Mantan Pengerusi & President Persatuan Pengedar Proton Edar Malaysia.

 

#selamatkanmalaysia #pejuangberprinsip #tolakbelanjawan #muhyidinout

Siri 1: https://bit.ly/2IHW2Mp    

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Siri 11: https://bit.ly/38I0aXX

Siri 12: https://bit.ly/39Sn0fQ 

SELAMATKAN MALAYSIA SIRI 12: APAKAH KESAN DARI PENYEMAK TURUN PENARAFAN KREDIT MALAYSIA

 

SELAMATKAN MALAYSIA SIRI 12: APAKAH KESAN DARI PENYEMAK TURUN PENARAFAN KREDIT MALAYSIA. BAB-1

1. Pada 4 Disember 2020, Fitch Rating Inc telah menyemak semula Issuer Default Rating (IDR) mata wang asing jangka panjang Malaysia dengan menurunkan penarafan dari 'A-' kepada 'BBB+'.

2. Fitch Ratings Inc. ialah salah satu daripada 'agensi penarafan kredit Tiga Besar' yang mana dua lagi ialah Moody's dan Standard & Poor's. Ia merupakan salah satu daripada tiga organisasi penarafan statistik yang diiktiraf secara nasional serta antarabangsa yang ditetapkan oleh Suruhanjaya Sekuriti dan Pertukaran AS pada tahun 1975.

3. Apakah kesan dari penurunan Penarafan Fitch Ratings Inc. ini?

4. Setiap individu, syarikat atau negara mempunyai penarafan kredit yang tersendiri yang ditetapkan oleh institusi kewangan atau agensi yang diiktiraf. Penarafan kredit untuk individu atau syarikat, lebih dikenali sebagai skor kredit atau 'credit worthiness'. Untuk tujuan blog ini, kita akan merujuk kredit skor atau credit worthiness individu itu sabagai penarafan kredit.

5. Apabila seseorang individu atau syarikat memohon untuk mendapatkan pinjaman Bank samada untuk pinjaman peribadi (atau korporat), pinjaman untuk membeli kereta atau membeli rumah (atau pejabat), penarafan kredit (atau skor kredit/'credit worthiness') pemohon akan disemak oleh institusi kewangan untuk menentukan kelayakan kredit atau 'credit worthiness'.

6. Penarafan kredit pemohon yang memberangsangkan akan membolehkan pemohon mendapat jumlah pinjaman yang tinggi dengan kadar faedah yang rendah kerana risiko pembayaran untuk pinjaman adalah lebih rendah. Pemohon yang mempunyai penarafan kredit yang tinggi ditawarkan berbagai kemudahan seperti fasiliti overdraft tanpa komitment fi (comitment fee), kad kredit tanpa caj tahunan dan sebagainya.

7. Diantara faktor yang memberi kesan kepada penarafan kredit pemohon individu/syarikat ialah kebolehan pemohon untuk membayar ansuran pinjaman berdasarkan jumlah hutang sedia-ada seperti kad kredit, overdraf, pinjaman sewa-beli, pinjaman rumah/pejabat dan lain lain. Jika pemohon telah mempunyai kemudahan kewangan, permohonan pinjaman baru kemungkinan ditawarkan (atau ditolak) dengan kadar faedah yang lebih tinggi kerana risiko pinjaman tidak berbayar menjadi lebih tinggi dengan tanggungan pinjaman keseluruhan yang banyak.

8. Saya pasti ramai pernah memohon pinjaman dari institusi kewangan untuk membeli kereta atau rumah dan di tawarkan faedah yang tinggi atau telah ditolak (reject) sama-sekali kerana skor kredit yang rendah.

9. Begitulah pentingnya untuk kita menjaga had hutang (dan pembayaran tanpa tunggakan) kita kerana kita akan terus menjalankan kehidupan dengan rekod kewangan kita seumur hidup.

10. Begitu penting juga penarafan kredit yang ditetapkan kepada negara kita, Malaysia. 

11. Penurunan penarafan kredit Malaysia bermakna kebolehan negara kita untuk membayar pinjaman dan/atau faedah (contoh: kepada pinjaman seperti Bon) tepat pada masanya dipertikaikan. Ini akan menjejaskan kebolehan Malaysia untuk mendapatkan lebih dana melalui pinjaman dengan faedah yang rendah dan kompetitif.

12. Agensi penarafan seperti Fitch Inc memberi maklumat kepada pelabur global mengenai kemampuan negara untuk membayar hutang - contohnya, bolehkan Malaysia membuat pembayaran faedah tepat pada waktunya, atau akan gagal bayar.

13. Dengan jumlah hutang terkumpul yang mencecah RM1.3 trilion dan kadar faedah lebih tinggi yang mungkin dikenakan dengan penarafan kredit 'BBB+', hutang ini berkemungkinan besar, terpaksa ditanggung oleh generasi akan datang dalam bentuk cukai lebih tinggi.

14. Keadaan negara Malaysia seumpama keadaan Makcik Kiah yang mengalami ketidaktentuan pendapatan akibat pandemik Covid-19 dan dibelenggu hutang kad kredit (5 kad kredit), hutang overdraf, hutang sewa-beli kereta, hutang rumah, hutang ahlong, dan hutang dengan saudara-mara. Oleh sebab penarafan kredit Makcik Kiah terjejas, Makcik Kiah kemungkinan terpaksa memohon pinjaman peribadi dengan kadar faedah yang tinggi.

15. Sanggupkah kita meninggalkan beban hutang negara kepada anak-anak dan cucu-cucu kita yang mungkin terpaksa bekerja 3 syif sehari kerana sebahagian besar pendapatan mereka terpaksa ditolak untuk membayar cukai pendapatan yang tinggi.

 

ARMIN BANIAZ PAHAMIN ~ Usahawan teknologi, Mantan Pengerusi & President Persatuan Pengedar Proton Edar Malaysia.

 

#selamatkanmalaysia #pejuangberprinsip #tolakbelanjawan #muhyidinout

Siri 1: https://bit.ly/2IHW2Mp    

Siri 2: https://bit.ly/3jqUeV2   

Siri 3: https://bit.ly/31AKWPW   

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Siri 6: https://bit.ly/3mEoP3j 

Siri 7: https://bit.ly/34NmgG8

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Siri 9: https://bit.ly/3kbI1Uy 

Siri 10: https://bit.ly/3n2gq9S

Siri 11: https://bit.ly/38I0aXX

AN UNSOLVED TRAGEDY: MH 653- 4th DECEMBER 1977

AN UNSOLVED TRAGEDY: MH 653- 4th DECEMBER 1977

By: Captain Kamil Abu Bakar. The writer was an aircraft accident investigator and at one time was the airline's Chief Pilot Safety & Security and later the Director of Flight Operations.

Remark: The article below is written without malice nor with any ill intent towards anybody, dead or alive.

INTRODUCTION

The National Airline, MAS had its first fatal accident in the early evening of 4th December 1977, a Sunday.

The B737-200 a scheduled passenger service from Penang to Kuala Lumpur, was hijacked when approaching the airport and the pilots were forced to fly the aircraft to Singapore.

On its descent into Singapore Paya Lebar Airport, for unknown reasons, both pilots, first the First Officer then the Captain, were shot. The aircraft not being professionally flown, spiraled into the swampy ground of Tanjung Kupang, in the southern part of Johore. All on board were killed.

The crash was accordingly investigated by the Chief Inspector of Aircraft Accident Malaysia and it being considered a criminal act, the police from Bukit Aman too got involved actively. For lack of expertise and technical know-how (then), it being a catastrophic crash, assistance was sought from  investigators from the Aircraft Accident Investigation Branch (AAIB), Farnborough , UK.

Following a lengthy investigation, an official investigation report was produced. And as per the requirement of ICAO Annex 13, Recommended Practice for Aircraft Accident Investigation, the report was made public.

The report concluded that the aircraft crashed because both pilots were shot by an unidentified person for unknown reasons. 

Information about this tragedy is also documented for public knowledge in WIKIPEDIA. However it has to be said that some of the information related in the WIKIPEDIA, is not correct.

It quoted among other things that "the hijacking took place in 1977, when terrorists identified as the Japanese Red Army took over a Malaysian airlines jet traveling to Kuala Lumpur."

That conclusion is however subjected to conjecture.

No (terrorists) organization ever claimed responsibility for the tragedy.

Here is an account of what happened, written based on the Cockpit Voice Recording.

TIME TO GO

"Knock, knock, knock," somebody was knocking on the cockpit door.

"Come in," Capt. Ganjoor  who was handling the radio, doing the PNF, the Pilot Not Flying duties, responded. His co-pilot, First Officer Kamarulzaman was flying the aircraft.

"Knock, knock, knock," somebody continued knocking on the door.

"COME IN. THE DOOR IS NOT LOCKED," Capt. Ganjoor raised his voice a level, to be heard by that 'somebody' outside the door.

Then the door opened. In walked a person with, what was believed to be a pistol, in his hand. He made certain gesture to which Capt. Ganjoor responded, "You want us to go-around?"

This was followed by Capt. Ganjoor transmitting to the Control Tower, "Malaysian Six Five Three , going around."

"We have a hijacker on board."

The tower responded, " Confirm you have a hijacker on board?"

"Affirm," Capt. Ganjoor confirmed.

"What's your intention?"  tower asked.

" Standby," Capt. Ganjoor replied.

Capt. Ganjoor turned his back and asked, " Where do you want to go? We just have fuel to go to Singapore."

( Commercial flights must have fuel to go to an alternate airport, plus at least another 30 minutes of reserve fuel to cater for the eventuality that landing at the destination airport is not possible.)

No answer was heard.

But Capt. Ganjoor was recorded to have transmitted, "Request clearance to proceed to Singapore."

" Malaysian Six Five Three cleared to Singapore on Alpha Sixty Four, initially climb to ten thousand feet..... contact LUMPUR One Two Three decimal Seven Five."

Capt. Ganjoor read back the clearance,  "Malaysian Six Five Three cleared to Singapore on Alpha Sixty Four, initially climb to ten thousand feet......contact LUMPUR One Two Three decimal Seven Five."

The knocking on the door was the beginning of the Cockpit Voice Recording of the last 30 minutes of the flight. (The CVR over-records every 30 minutes.)

(Capt. Ganjoor was an expatriate, an Indian National who joined the National Airline from its early days. MAS is a breakaway from MSA, Malaysia Singapore Airlines. Following the split on 26th Oct. 1972, SIA formed the Singapore part.

Most of the Captains in MAS then were expatriates. There were not many Malaysian pilots those days. Malays were only a handful. First Officer Kamarulzaman was amongst the first few Malays who was given the opportunity to take up the profession. The writer who joined the Airline earlier, was at the time of the accident, a First Officer on Boeing 707, a bigger and longer range aircraft. He used to be a copilot to Capt. Ganjoor  who was very well liked, being a gentle and fatherly figure).

The flight originating from Penang was uneventful until somebody knocked on that cockpit door and entered the pilots' station.

First Officer Kamarulzaman was at the controls, with Capt. Ganjoor doing the radio work. They were on the final approach for Runway 15, Sultan Abdul Aziz Shah Airport Subang, an approach from the north, commencing from Batu Arang beacon, VBA, at around 2000 feet, when that happened.  

Having got their clearance to proceed to Singapore, they continued to climb to cruise at Flight Level Two One Zero- 21000 feet.

Nothing much was heard except for the occasional communication the aircraft had with the Air Traffic Control Centre.

At one stage during the cruise when the flight was over MIKE CHARLIE Beacon, Capt. Ganjoor was heard saying, " We are now over Malacca. Do you know where Malacca is?"

There was no answer.

Shortly after, the aircraft having been handed over to Singapore Air Traffic Control Centre, commenced its descent for what's supposed to be its approach and landing at Singapore Paya Lebar airport.

Everything appeared to be normal. The recordings did not record any other conversation except for Capt. Ganjoor's communication with the Air Traffic Controller. First Officer Kamarulzaman too was not heard to say anything.

As the aircraft was descending and passing around 10,000 feet, then a faint voice was heard to have said, which was deciphered as, " TIME TO GO NOW."

Then, "BANG, BANG!”

First Officer Kamarulzaman was shot.

Then it could be imagined that the pistol was turned towards Capt. Ganjoor, who pleaded, "NO, NO."

"BANG, BANG"......... "UGH, UGH, UGH," Capt. Ganjoor was heard passing his last breath.

Then a scuffle was heard of people trying to gain control of the aircraft. It was futile because the aircraft went into a spiral dive and plunged almost nose first into the swamps of Tanjung Kupang..........at very high speed. The main wreckage burrowed about 40 feet into the soft soil and pieces of bodies and baggage were scattered over a wide area.

All on board were killed- 5 cabin crew, 93 passengers; the 2 pilots were presumably dead before the aircraft hit the ground. Of course, amongst those killed was the person who shot the pilots. Why would he do that? That's the big question.

There were several VIPS on board the flight- amongst them the Cuban Ambassador to Japan, Malaysian Agriculture Minister and the Director General of Public Works Department PWD, now JKR. What ensued were several speculations. And that shall remain speculations because they could not be supported with concrete evidence.

THE RECORDERS

All commercial aircraft must be fitted with at least 2 recorders: FLIGHT DATA RECORDER ( FDR) and COCKPIT VOICE RECORDER (CVR).

Despite the very high impact, both recorders were recovered intact.

Recordings from the FDR revealed that the aircraft was performing normally throughout the flight.

The CVR, a spool less tape, records conversation, aural warnings and all other sounds in the cockpit. Only recording of the last 30 minutes of the flight was available for scrutiny by investigators of its capacity. Earlier portions were recorded over. 

So that's how the recording of the fated flight started- with the knocks on the cockpit door and ended ( 30 minutes later) when the aircraft hit the ground in Tanjung Kupang.  Both recorders were sent to Farnborough to be decoded.

The flight recorders are as a matter of fact, very useful if not crucial in aircraft accident investigations. The recordings cannot be altered or doctored.

HOW COULD IT HAPPEN?

During the early days, at its infancy, even up to mid '70s, Aviation Security, not only in Malaysia but throughout the world, was lacking, if not non-existent. It was as if there were no bad people then. Anybody could bring anything on board the aircraft. There were no security checks. Well wishers could even send their friends or relatives right up to the aircraft door......in some cases, still hugging and shaking hands in the aircraft cabin before departure.

The Commercial aviation industry is regulated by International Civil Aviation Organization- ICAO. They cover also the Aviation Security. After this accident, Aviation Security Act was passed. Security was tightened.

Post September 11, 911 of 2001, it became even tighter. Everybody has to go through metal detectors. If need be, they will be body searched. Not only metal objects are not allowed into the aircraft but also all forms of liquid, and that includes drinking water. And there are no exceptions. Even the crew including the pilots who fly the aircraft are subjected to these checks. 

No unauthorized person is allowed to enter the cockpit which must be locked ( and bolted) throughout the flight.

Cabin crew are only allowed to enter the cockpit to serve the pilots with food or drink only with prior notification.

The cockpit door is bullet proof and can be bolted from inside. Overhead is a camera for the pilots to see who is standing in front of the cockpit door, before it is opened. Indeed from this accident and a few other cases after this, Aviation Security has changed drastically.

EPILOGUE

Many many years after this tragedy, sometime in 1992, the writer who by that material time was the Chief Pilot Safety & Security of the airline, was asked to go to AAIB Farnborough, to get more information about an incident which happened in Heathrow Terminal Area some months back. The incident was of interest to the airline which was then flying to London twice daily. The incident had nothing to do at all with flight MH 653 of 4th December 1977. 

When meeting with the AAIB officials, upon introducing himself as from Malaysia Airlines, one of them volunteered,

"Ah, you are from Malaysia Airlines? You know, I investigared your MH 653 that was hijacked and crashed in Tanjung Kupang."

"Umph, can you tell what actually happened," I tried to fish.

"Honestly we don't know what actually happened. One thing for sure, both pilots were shot. But we don't know who was the hijacker. We were not certain even if there were more than one hijacker on board. We don't know their identity, nor do we know their motive. Very strange. They were very quiet. They did not say anything."

That was what the official accident report concluded - " That the aircraft crashed after both pilots were shot by unknown person for no apparent reason, leaving the aircraft not professionally flown."

The accident shall remain an unsolved mystery.

CAPT KAMIL

2nd JULY 2020

The writer was an aircraft accident investigator and at one time was the airline's Chief Pilot Safety & Security and later the Director of Flight Operations.

Remark: The above is written without malice nor with any ill intent towards anybody, dead or alive.

Innallillahiwainna ilaihirooji'uun. Al Fatihah to all the Muslim casualties and to all the other Non Muslims, Rest in Peace.